On January 17, 2013, after more than two decades, the US formally recognized the Somali government. This decision followed the establishment of a new administration and significant gains against Islamic militancy in Somalia – most importantly, against the Al-Qaeda affiliated al-Shabaab. However, even though the group has indubitably weakened in the past few years, concerns over its influence in the region, and over Somalia’s future, still continue.
In June 2006, a group of 11 sharia courts called the Islamic Courts Union, successfully invaded Mogadishu with al-Shabaab’s help, but was later ousted by Ethiopian forces. Radicalized by the Ethiopian attacks, al-Shabaab emerged as one of the most important players amongst Somali insurgency groups, and was designated an FTO by the US State Department exactly two years after the Mogadishu invasion.
Islamic militant groups are not uncommon in the region; in impoverished Somalia, ranked first in Foreign Policy’s 2012 Failed States Index, any new vision for the future is highly attractive for frustrated youth. Some of the things that distinguish al-Shabaab are its attacks outside Kenya – namely, a 2010 suicide bombing in Uganda killing 74 – and its success in recruiting Somali-Americans via radical sermons on the Internet. In regions under its control, al-Shabaab is known to have punished adultery and thievery with stonings and amputations, enforced bans on music and the shaving of beards in accordance with strict Sharia law, forcefully recruited schoolboys to fight, and beheaded and desecrated the graves of non-Muslims.
In the past few years, AU and UN forces have nearly eliminated its presence in Somali cities. A Kenyan attack in October last year displaced it from its last stronghold, thus cutting off one of its major sources of funding. However, al-Shabaab still remains a cause for grave worry. In early January, al-Shabaab linked militants were caught plotting attacks in Somalia by Ethiopian forces. At around the same time, al-Shabaab also posted photos of a French soldier killed in a failed attempt by France to rescue another French officer held hostage by al-Shabaab since 2009. The Somali government lacks the resources to deal al-Shabaab a fatal blow and most importantly, to show enough signs of development so as to convince people away from becoming radicalized. Al-Shabaab is still highly capable of setting Somali back on its path to progress and Somalia’s future will depend on how al-Shabab is dealt with.