ALTHOUGH most Americans are ringing in the New Year with some much needed rest and relaxation, the Republican Presidential contenders are spending their days furiously campaigning across Iowa for the state’s Republican caucuses on January 3. Indeed, at rallies and state fairs from Des Moines to Cedar Rapids; in diners and living rooms from Davenport to Sioux City, Republicans are stumping for undecided votes.
The Iowa caucuses have been the first major electoral contest in the race for President since 1972. Thanks to a frontloaded schedule of Republican primaries and caucuses, however, this year’s Iowa caucuses have been pushed to the very beginning of January.
Unlike primaries (which nearly all states now utilize), caucuses allow for an opportunity to hear speeches on behalf of candidates before voting. Upon entering the church, school, library or living room where most caucuses take place, Iowans receive blank sheets of paper with no candidate names on them. It is only after listening to the impassioned supporters of various candidates that voters select their preferred nominee.
Caucuses feature a relatively small portion of a state’s population (less than four percent of Iowa’s population voted in the 2008 Republican caucuses), greatly reward candidates with passionate precinct captains and good organization and can depend on factors as mercurial as the weather. (Extreme weather phenomena like a blizzard or a thunderstorm generally benefit candidates with more devoted followings, like Ron Paul.)
More than any other time in recent memory, the Republican side of the Iowa caucuses is truly up for grabs. Mitt Romney and Ron Paul both have strong ground organizations in Iowa, but both men are viewed with jaundiced eye by a large portion of the Iowa Republican electorate. Former Senator Rick Santorum, however, has seen his support increase dramatically in the last several days, but whether this recent bump in the polls is enough to pull off an upset remains to be seen. This post will examine the five most likely scenarios for the Iowa caucuses.
1. Romney By A Nose
Where other candidates — namely Michele Bachmann, Rick Perry, Herman Cain and Newt Gingrich — have risen and fallen over the past several months, Mitt Romney has remained a remarkably steady frontrunner. Although he indicated early in 2011 that he would not compete for the Iowa caucuses (after an embarrassing defeat at the hands of Mike Huckabee in 2008), the large proportion of undecided voters has convinced Romney to attempt to win the caucuses once again.
Unlike in 2008, when social conservatives and home school advocates (a potent force in Iowa Republican contests) united behind Huckabee, candidates such as Bachmann, Perry and Rick Santorum have fractured their support this year. Indeed, the failure of conservatives to join forces on behalf of a single candidate has made the former Massachusetts Governor an even more serious contender than when he poured upwards of $10 million into Iowa in 2008.
Although he certainly has a ceiling of support among Republican voters, polls reveal that Romney is seen as the most electable and qualified Republican candidate. A consequential (and historically accurate) Des Moines Register poll, released Saturday December 31, showed Romney in first place with just days before the caucuses. Accordingly, if other candidates — namely, Santorum — fail to capitalize on recent momentum and Ron Paul cannot expand his base of likely supporters, it appears increasingly likely that Romney will triumph in the Iowa caucuses.
“I would probably say Mitt Romney will end up winning it today,” Mike Huckabee predicted on Fox News Sunday.
2. The Santorum Surge
One possible outcome for the 2012 Iowa caucuses is for a dark horse candidate to come from behind and win. Every candidate aside from Romney and Paul is relying almost entirely on the support of social conservatives, a group that remains uncharacteristically fractured. Nonetheless, if Evangelical Christians (which make up an incredible 60 percent of Republican caucus-goers) and home school advocates unite behind a single candidate, that person has a serious chance of winning. And there appears to be some late movement on that front.
Rick Santorum, the former Pennsylvania Senator who has literally moved to Iowa for the campaign, was recently endorsed by perhaps the most influential Iowa conservative, political activist Bob Vander Plaats (as well as several other leading Iowa Republicans). His campaign, which has been largely overlooked this past year, is finally being given consideration by many undecided voters.
Indeed, the Des Moines Register poll, which showed Santorum sitting in the second or third tier just a month ago, revealed that Santorum is currently in a close third place behind Romney and Paul. The 15 percent he garnered over the four days the poll was in the field may be misleading, however, because while Santorum clocked in at 10 percent during the first two days, he catapulted to 22 percent — just one point behind Romney — by the last day.
According to the National Review, “Santorum has something [the other Republican candidates] do not: upward momentum.” And if this continues (and he can avoid bad press for the next two days), it is plausible that momentum will carry Santorum across the finish line, despite his weak organization and ground game.
“They’re watching the Tim Tebow of the Republican process out there, working all the way through the 4th quarter,” Santorum backer Chuck Laudner told Radio Iowa.
3. A Convincing Ron Paul Victory
According to Iowa Republican insiders, the best-organized candidate (and the one who inspires the most support among the conservative caucus-goers) is Ron Paul, the libertarian-leaning Texas Congressman.
Paul has invested heavily in the Hawkeye State and polls reveal that more Republicans have been contacted by his campaign than any other. Moreover, Paul inspires incredible loyalty among his staff and supporters. And although Paul placed second in the Des Moines Register poll of registered Republicans, political analysts point out that much of the Congressman’s support comes from Democrats and Independents. These voters were not sampled in the survey, but can switch their registration to vote Tuesday. Accordingly, Paul’s support is likely several percentage points higher than the Register measured.
If Paul manages to exceed the 20 to 25 percent that he routinely garners in the polls, and frontrunner Mitt Romney fails to capitalize on his national support, Paul could well triumph in the caucuses with 30 or 35 percent of the vote — a convincing victory.
If Paul decisively wins the caucuses, it would likely throw the race into even more disarray than it is already in. As Patrick Griffin, an unaligned GOP strategist, told the Christian Science Monitor, “If Paul wins Iowa, Iowa relegates itself to almost complete and total political obscurity.” Moreover, many of Paul’s more conventional ideas and opinions (such as his statements saying that US foreign policy led to 9/11) are at odds with most general election voters. Republican Party leaders would likely scramble to ensure that Paul does not win the race even if he does prevail in Iowa.
4. Paul Edges Out the Competition
A somewhat more likely outcome than a decisive Paul victory is for him to win Iowa by only a few percentage points (edging out Romney, Santorum and company). Polls have shown that Paul has a lower ceiling than most Republican candidates and is more unpalatable to likely voters.
According to a recent Washington Post/ABC News survey, 51 percent of Republicans say Paul doesn’t have the personality and temperament it takes to be president (just 33 percent said that of Newt Gingrich and only 26 of Mitt Romney). Additionally, 45 percent say Paul’s stances on foreign policy is a “major reason to oppose” him (19 percent, in comparison, identified Gingrich’s marital history as a major problem). Additionally, Paul’s controversial — often racist and homophobic — newsletters that have just recently surfaced do not aid his campaign.
Nonetheless, because of his solid organization and devoted cadre of supporters, Paul is well positioned for a victory in Iowa.
Huckabee added on Fox News Sunday, “I think again, Ron Paul because of his organization could [win], and that’s where Mitt [Romney] is really at a disadvantage. He doesn’t have the devotion. If the weather is good, Mitt Romney is in better shape. If the weather is bad and it’s real tough to get out, Ron Paul will win.”
5. Perry or Gingrich Eke It Out
Polls reveal that even with just hours to go before the caucuses begin, upwards of 40 percent of Iowa Republicans could still settle on a new candidate before Tuesday. This remarkably large proportion of ambivalent voters could spell victory for yet another dark horse candidate.
Indeed, Santorum is not the only candidate who can stage a come-from-behind victory. Another force in Iowa — although one probably less likely to ultimately triumph in the caucuses — is Texas Governor Rick Perry. According to statistician Nate Silver, “Rick Perry is probably the most acceptable candidate to the establishment after Mr. Romney, and has the most money after Mr. Romney, and his polling has shown signs of life in Iowa.”
After a sharp rise in the polls over the summer, Perry’s numbers crashed back to Earth following several weak debate performances and other campaign gaffes. He has struggled to regain support and momentum. Nonetheless, Perry and pro-Perry third party groups have poured a remarkable amount of money into Iowa and commercials on his behalf are ubiquitous. If his message of faith and family resonates with conservatives in Iowa, he too has a chance of winning the caucuses.
The most recent flavor of the month among Republican candidates (and another potential victor) is former House Speaker Newt Gingrich. After falling into the low single digits this summer, Gingrich’s campaign rebounded and enjoyed a remarkable renaissance. Nonetheless, after receiving fresh consideration from many Iowa voters, Gingrich is back to the third tier of candidates.
But if Gingrich’s support holds and the other candidates fail to capitalize on late momentum, the former Speaker of the House could plausibly win the caucuses. A poor showing in Iowa — a fate that is increasingly likely with each passing day — would indicate that Gingrich’s fifteen minutes is up once and for all.
(Michele Bachmann, who won the Ames, Iowa Straw Poll in August, also has a chance of winning with the support of social conservatives, but her approval remains too low and her style too divisive to have a serious shot at victory. Former Ambassador Jon Huntsman is not competing in Iowa.)
For the first time in decades, four or five Republican candidates have a real chance of winning the Iowa caucuses. Whatever the outcome in Iowa, however, the fact remains that this is the most wide-open Republican field in recent history.