January was a bad month for Gov. Chris Christie (R-NJ), whose reelection honeymoon was abruptly cut short by revelations that senior aides had conspired to shut down access lanes to the George Washington Bridge in an act of political retribution. Since then, allegations about Mr. Christie’s involvement in “Bridgegate” and other instances of alleged heavy-handed retribution have put a damper on Mr. Christie’s 2016 presidential ambitions. Yesterday’s CNN/Opinion Research poll was the latest blow, showing him losing a potential 2016 matchup with Hillary Clinton 55-39, a sharp turnaround from a 48-46 lead he held over Ms. Clinton in CNN’s December survey. The other three pollsters polling in both months show the same trend, on average trending toward Ms. Clinton by over ten points.
| Pollster | December | January | Swing |
| Marist | Clinton +3 | Clinton +13 | Clinton +10 |
| Quinnipiac | Christie +1 | Clinton +8 | Clinton +9 |
| PPP | Christie +3 | Clinton +2 | Clinton +5 |
| CNN/ORC | Christie +2 | Clinton +16 | Clinton +18 |
| Average | Christie +0.75 | Clinton +9.75 | Clinton +10.5 |
This happened while the horseraces involving other potential Republican candidates remained relatively stable among the three pollsters who considered other candidates in both months (Quinnipiac, PPP, and CNN/ORC).
| Other Candidate | December | January | Swing |
| Rand Paul | Clinton +8.3 | Clinton +10.3 | Clinton +2.0 |
| Jeb Bush | Clinton +11.7 | Clinton +11.0 | Bush +0.7 |
| Chris Christie | Christie +2.0 | Clinton +8.7 | Clinton +10.7 |
While we are still nearly two years away from the Iowa caucuses, these developments are particularly damaging to Mr. Christie because of the nature of the primary campaign he will be forced to run. Much like 2012 nominee Mitt Romney, Mr. Christie is not an ideal candidate for the Republican base. Even in PPP’s December poll, his favorability was underwater (32% favorable – 38% unfavorable) among self-described “very conservative” voters. As a result, Mr. Christie would rely heavily on the support of the “invisible primary” of Republican insiders and fundraisers who settled for Mr. Romney after a futile search for another “electable” candidate that included Jeb Bush, then-Govs. Mitch Daniels (IN) and Haley Barbour (MS), and even Mr. Christie himself. But if Mr. Christie’s reputation with moderate voters (whose opinion of him has slipped from 50-25 to 28-44) does not recover, major donors will likely look elsewhere—to Mr. Bush, perhaps—for their “electable” candidate. And if that happens, Mr. Christie’s chances at the Republican nomination would be close to nil.