“Orange County is where the good Republicans go before they die,” said Ronald Reagan.
Located in Southern California, Orange County is one of the most populous counties in the United States. Largely suburban, Orange County was a conservative stronghold throughout the twentieth century. Yet in recent years Orange County’s politics have shifted. As suburban counties across the country have become more liberal, so has Orange County. For the first time in eighty years, in the 2016 Presidential Election Orange County voted for a Democrat. This year four of Orange County’s six congressional elections are competitive. In a tightly divided house, these four Orange County seats could mean the difference between a Democratic or Republican majority. So how did we get here today? Why have Orange County voters shifted away from the Republican Party?
Once an agricultural county filled with orange groves and cattle ranches, Orange County grew rapidly in the years after World War 2. In 1964, The Civil Rights Act was signed into law by President Johnson, effectively ending legal segregation in the United States. In 1968, Los Angeles experienced months of riots. Many middle class White Americans in Los Angeles and across the country responded to the social transformations of the 1960s by moving to the suburbs. Orange County acted as the landing spot for many of these Angelenos.
Louis DeSipio, a Political Science Professor at UC Irvine, expanded on the causes of Orange County’s population boom. “It was a combination of things, it was white flight out of Los Angeles. So you got the movement of middle class white communities,” DeSipio explained. “From the south, you got the movement of military and retired military out of Camp Pendleton, and then more broadly out of San Diego County.”
In essence, Orange County served as a middle ground for those who either wanted to escape the city, find a place to retire, or were looking for a place to settle down. The kind of individual who moved to Orange County in the mid-twentieth century was a traditional Republican, a homeowner who in migrating to Orange County embraced a conservative vision of America and its future.
The movement of many upwardly mobile White Americans from Los Angeles to Orange County in the 1960s led the county’s influence to grow within California politics. The county became a center for conservative thought and activism. Orange County lays claim to two of the most influential twentieth century conservatives: native son Richard Nixon and Ronald Reagan, an Los Angeles County resident whose early political career was powered by Orange County. The county was also home to The John Birch Society, a right wing political advocacy group known for strong conservative values. The group held massive influence in the county throughout the second half of the twentieth century, serving as a beacon for ultra-conservative and anti-communist views. The group threw their support behind political candidates that represented their conservative ideals, pushing Orange County Republicans—and California Republicans more broadly—to the right.
Yet, in the last decade, Orange County has become increasingly purple. During the 2016 Presidential Election, Secretary Hillary Clinton became the first Democrat in over forty years to win Orange County. The 2018 midterms saw multiple congressional seats switch from Republican to Democrat. Gil Cisneros (D) defeated Young Kim (R) in District 39. Meanwhile, Katie Porter (D) ousted incumbent Mimi Walters (R) in District 47. In 2018, for the first time in living memory, all six of Orange County’s congressional districts were held by Democrats, effectively locking Republicans out of the county’s congressional delegation.
The shift of Orange County voters from resolutely Republican to increasingly Democratic can be attributed both to Orange County’s changing demographics in Orange County and large-scale trends in the Republican Party.
Orange County’s increase in college educated voters, for instance, has provided a boost to Democrats. While it always had a comparatively high level of college attainment, Orange County has become even more highly educated over the last fifty years. With 28 colleges and universities, Orange County’s expanding college-aged population is an important reason for Orange County’s purpling.
“[Orange County has] always been a county that has had a large share of college educated residents. And over the last several years, college educated voters have trended more democratic than they have in the past.” Jon Gould, Dean at UC Irvine’s School of Ecology, stated.
The University of California at Irvine, where Dean Gould teaches, did not even exist when Ronald Reagan rode massive support in Orange County to become Governor of California in 1964.
Dean Gould also addressed Orange County’s demographic transformation, explaining “Moreover, there has been a rise in both Latino and Asian voters here in Orange County. At the moment, it is almost a third, a third and third, between three groups White, Asian and Latino. White voters, a plurality of them are Republican. Latino voters, a plurality of them are Democratic. Asian voters, a plurality of them are independent. So it really is this interesting mix of different racial and ethnic groups.”
These demographic shifts in Orange County are amplified by the changes within the Republican Party. Many Orange County Republicans identify more strongly with values like free trade, low taxes, and an atlanticist, interventionist foreign policy that have receded from the fore of Republican politics; they identify as “Reagan Republicans.” These Reagan Republicans are ideologically conservative and hold views aligned with those of Ronald Reagan and George H.W Bush. Reagan Republicans disapprove of the current state of the Republican party—namely, its shift further and further to the right.
“They are not Trump Republicans. And they are concerned about a Republican Party that seems to be opposed to gay rights. They are concerned about a Republican Party that is doubling down on anti-abortion language and potentially constricting contraception as well,” Dean Gould said.
This key voting block is a reflection of why Orange County has transitioned into a purple county in the last ten years. “Some of them would have peeled off and just become independent. Those who’ve stayed still aren’t that excited about where the party’s going right now,” Gould continued.
Celeste Wilson is a Democratic strategist in Orange County and the current campaign manager for Joe Kerr’s campaign. Kerr is the Democratic candidate in California’s 40th congressional district, a Republican held swing seat in northwestern Orange County. A longtime California resident, Wilson has seen first hand the political shift that is occuring in Orange County. “A big part of the reason that you’re starting to see Orange County turn blue is because the Republican Party has gone to the extreme. So you’re starting to see people become more disenfranchised with the extremism of the Republican Party,” Celeste Wilson said.
While Orange County’s political evolution may sound like that of many other suburban counties, there are two factors that make understanding the political instincts and idiosyncrasies of Orange County voters particularly important in 2024. First, Orange County’s size—it is home to roughly as many people as the state of Utah. Second, four of its six congressional districts are competitive. Since Republicans control the House of Representatives with a bare four-seat majority, Orange County on its own could decide control of the house. To understand the dynamics of this year’s house races in Orange County, it is instructive to examine each in isolation.
Congresswomen Young Kim and Michelle Steel, who represent Congressional Districts 40 and 45, are incumbent Republicans fighting for re-election this fall in competitive Orange County districts. In the 2020 election Congresswomen Steel and Kim successfully flipped their seats. Both currently lead their opponents in the polls, but given the unpredictable nature of this election cycle, these two races have been labeled as competitive.
In Congressional District 49, Mike Levin (D) is currently seeking a 4th term in office and is being challenged by Matt Gunderson (R), a prominent community member and businessman. Levin, who represents a wealthy, coastal strip in the southern half of the county, narrowly leads his opponent in polling.
The closest Orange County race is the battle for Congressional District 47. Orange County’s 47th Congressional District is currently held by Democratic Congresswoman Katie Porter, who gave up her seat to unsuccessfully run for the US Senate this year. With Porter out of the race, Republicans see an opening to flip the seat.
“Katie Porter is just a fundraising machine. So, you know, money helps with their [the Democratic Party’s] attempt to flip the seats,” Executive Director of the Orange County Republicans, Randall Avila, said.
Democrat Dave Min and Republican Scott Baugh are vying to replace Porter, and the race is expected to be tight. Porter beat Baugh by three percent in 2022, and Min does not have the advantage of incumbency. Porter’s district, which includes the city of Irvine and wealthy coastal communities like Newport Beach, is a microcosm of Orange County—it is home to traditionally conservative suburbs, college campuses, and wealthy beach enclaves.
Changing demographics have dramatically altered the way campaigns are run in Orange County Democrats are leaning into issues such as abortion, gun control, and welfare. Republicans, on the other hand, are campaigning on issues such immigration and the economy. Democrats are nationalizing the race, effectively tying congressional GOP candidates to former President Trump and the MAGA Movement. Republicans, on the other hand, are using a localized approach that creates some separation from the MAGA movement.
Randall Avila, an Executive Director of Orange County Republicans since 2018, has been at the center of voter mobilization and fundraising efforts for Republican congressional candidates in Orange County. Avila highlighted a series of issues that he felt were most prescient to voters this election cycle, stating, “And, you know, across the board, what we’re seeing is, number one, the border is a big issue… The other one is the cost of living and affordability, inflation.” Orange County Republicans hope that these two issues will both generate appeal amongst the Republican base and reel in independent voters within the county.
Winning in Orange County is crucial to Republicans maintaining control of the House. With two incumbents to protect as well as a potential pick-up opportunity in District 47, Orange County Republicans have been able to raise huge amounts of money for their congressional candidates. Speaker Johnson has made visits to the county, and the National Republican Congressional Committee has poured in tons of resources.
Just as Republicans believe Orange County will be crucial to their efforts to retain control of the house, Democrats believe Orange County will be crucial to regaining control. Local Democrats have decided to focus on a different set of issues from their Republican counterparts. Instead of immigration and inflation, Democrats believe abortion and democracy will prove decisive in November.
Professor DeSipio argues that Democrats’ focus on social issues and national politics reflects a deliberate strategy. “I think the Republicans are trying to run them as local races because they need to distance themselves a little bit from Trump and from the MAGA movement. The Democrats are tending to run more national races,” Professor DeSipio stated.
In an affluent, educated area like Orange County, Democrats see their path to victory in demonstrating that the modern Republican Party is socially and temperamentally out of step with suburban America. Issues like abortion and protecting democracy, Democrats believe, highlight this dichotomy.
One Democratic candidate who has combined the national significance of the 2024 election with a localized approach to campaigning is Joe Kerr. Kerr is a retired firefighter who served as captain with the Orange County fire authority for 34 years. Kerr is currently challenging incumbent Congresswoman Young Kim in California’s 47th Congressional District, the northwestern corner of Orange County. “I think the biggest catalyst was January 6. I really did think that someone like me would have to run for Congress just to protect democracy,” Kerr said. As a retired firefighter and Vice President of the Orange County Central Labor Council, Kerr has extensive experience in public service and advocacy.
When asked to highlight specific issues most important to voters this fall, Kerr said, “So those are the top three that we’re looking at: climatic extremes, gun safety, reducing gun violence, and then choice as it relates to civil rights. That’s a pretty good start. But there’s also Medicare, Social Security and things like that.” Kerr’s emphasis on reproductive rights, gun control, and climate, Democrats believe, will focus the campaign on issues on which Orange County Republicans are out of touch with their constituents.
Although it remains to be seen whether or not the Democrat’s campaign strategy will be successful in the Orange County races. The results of these elections may indicate increased shifts among the Orange County Electorate. Given the county’s large population, candidates like Kerr have to appeal to a diverse group of voters. “[Orange County] is one of only three counties among the top 25 by population that are truly purple,” Dean Gould said. The county also acts as an indicator for how other purple counties are swaying in the fall. Should Kerr be successful in his bid to unseat Congresswoman Kim, it would be an indicator of groups that have been seen as traditionally Republican moving further away from the GOP.
As the country becomes increasingly polarized, Democrats and Republicans hold drastically different visions for the future of the United States. With such a narrow majority, every seat will matter in determining control of the house this fall. Understanding Orange County’s political wants and needs may hold the key to controlling the House of Representatives and, with it, the ability to implement either party’s agenda.