A handwritten chalkboard listing daily offerings and local favorites hangs next to the display counter at Scratch Baking, a small bakery in Milford, Connecticut. Lines often flow out the door as new faces and regulars stop by for their morning drink of choice and a pastry. During peak business hours, Bridget Cassidy, Scratch Baking’s assistant manager, can be found frothing milk and pouring espresso shots while manning the front counter. More often than not, a once rare, now quotidian question pops up: Can I get that with oat milk?
With the rise of non-dairy beverages and plant-based milk products in recent years, coffee shops and bakeries have witnessed a shift in consumer preferences. “Alternative milk requests have become a norm, enough so that we tell our baristas to clarify what customers want if they don’t specify. We only carry oat and almond milk, but there are so many milk substitutes out there,” Cassidy told The Politic.
The plant-based milk industry has grown from humble beginnings in the early 1990s. Soy milk served as the top alternative drink until Blue Diamond Almond Milk debuted on supermarket shelves in 2008. Toppling soy milk as consumers’ milk substitute of choice, almond milk emerged as a dominant force in the industry, comprising 63% of the total market in 2020. Only recently has a new challenger, oat milk, made waves in the refrigerated aisle. Since 2016, oat milk edged its way to second place behind the market leader. Be it Chobani, Oatly, or Nesquik, oat-based products have become an industry staple. So much so that Almond-Breeze launched an almond-oat blend in March of 2024, combining the market’s two powerhouses.
Despite almond and oat milk’s current dominance, the alternative dairy industry is ever-evolving. Companies are constantly rolling out new substitutes and derivatives to keep up with the growing market, whether it be derived from peas, hemp seeds, or cashews. Brands like Lattini and Bam have found success with sunflower and buckwheat milk, while walnut and pecan milk are starting to break ground with consumers. Even past favorites are resurging. “Until recently, customers would ask for soy once in a blue moon. Just this past week, I’ve had four or five people order a soy latte, which I thought was strange,” said Cassidy. Even textbook definitions reflect consumer shifts as Merriam-Webster’s entry for milk newly includes those “produced from seeds or fruit that resembles and is used similarly to cow’s milk.”
Cultural trends play a large role in consumer decision-making, especially with coffee orders. Evan Cassidy, front-of-house manager of Scratch and Bridget Cassidy’s husband, noted, “We see upticks whenever a new health fad or news headline comes out. I remember when keto was all the rage and people wanted heavy cream in their drinks. It sounds odd, but it was popular enough that we kept it in our front refrigerator because of high demand.” In the plant-based context, “about four or five years ago, we saw oat and almond milk really skyrocket in popularity. Everyone wanted it and kept asking for it. As a coffee shop, we keep up with trends to provide for our customers,” he said.
But not everyone is happy with the new milk fads. Farm bureaus, rural folk, and even Congress members worry that flashy new alternatives are stealing customers from traditional dairy providers. In 2023, Senators Tammy Baldwin (D-WI), Jim Risch (R-ID), Susan Collins (R-ME), and Peter Welch (D-VT) introduced the bipartisan DAIRY PRIDE Act (HR 1462), a bill that would bar brands from labeling their dairy alternatives as “milk.” Companies would have to drop the title unless their product came from a hooved animal or utilized animal milk at some point in its production process.
To safeguard dairy farmers’ livelihood, the bill focused on redefining branding standards for milk alternatives. Proponents believe that by formalizing dairy-related terminology, they might distinguish “imitations” from the original. In a December 2023 press release, Senator Collins summarized the crux of the issue: “I know how hard Maine’s dairy farmers work to produce nutritious milk, yogurt, cheese, and other products. It is unfair for other industries to capitalize on milk’s nutritious brand.”
Milk was once an everyday staple. Now, its role in daily life has dwindled. Americans are drifting away from a cold glass every morning and its milk-mustache charm. According to the International Food Information Council, in the U.S., Generation Z alone reduced its milk consumption by 36% in 2024.
A possible explanation lies in a wave of health and environmental worries about the sustainability of dairy farming. In 2022, 77% of plant-based milk consumers were driven to switch because of environmental well-being, according to the Journal of Dairy Science. Generally, members of Generation Z are willing to pay higher prices for more sustainable products and adjust their budgets accordingly.
The ecological impacts of everyday transactions influence consumers when they weigh options in the refrigerated aisle. In particular, concerns surrounding the dairy industry’s land use, greenhouse gas emissions, and water contamination have sprung up. In 2018, Our World in Data found that a liter of dairy milk had a carbon footprint of 3.15 kg, while almond milk paled at 0.7 kg. Similarly, dairy milk’s land use and freshwater consumption steamrolled that of soy, rice, and oat milk.
Bella Willeboordse, brand manager of Bored Cow, a bioidentical milk alternative produced by Tomorrow Farms, commented on environmentally-conscious consumerism. “Our food system is taking a huge toll on the planet, and some of the foods we love most have the biggest carbon footprints. We believe most people want to do something about this, but simply don’t know what to do. Switching to alternative dairy is one small lifestyle change people can make that can positively impact the environment,” she said.
Bored Cow uses DNA sequences to ferment whey protein, a protein derived from cow milk. Without any animal input, their products retain the nutrients of traditional dairy milk without the lactose or cholesterol. According to studies conducted by the carbon assessment platform PlanetFWD, Bored Cow’s process requires 96% less land and generates 44% lower emissions than traditional dairy farms. Willeboordse said the “first step to reducing our global climate footprint is to understand what is having the biggest impact, and why that is.”
Kiki Milk, a plant-based milk start-up inspired by child allergy concerns, is also taking strides to improve environmental sustainability. “Every company has a carbon footprint, so it’s really about striving to minimize your contribution. We support regenerative farms whenever we can, and opt for packaging that is shelf-stable and recyclable. Kiki Milk works with EcoCart, a company that helps offset carbon emissions from online purchases. We’re just working to do the best we can,” said Rebecca Zimmerman, Director of Communications for Kiki Milk.
Plant-based milks take pride in their environmental friendliness. However, certain plant products do take a toll on the Earth’s resources. California, often hailed as the “breadbasket” and “salad bowl” of the U.S., supplies a vital share of the nation’s fresh produce and grains, including 99% of United States almonds. Almond groves are concentrated in the arid Central Valley, which faces frequent droughts. A singular almond consumes over a gallon of water. A glass of almond milk requires over 16.25 gallons.
Nonetheless, market demand for milk alternatives feeds the growth of the plant-based industry. In light of these trends, the American dairy sector is reckoning with a volatile consumer base and deteriorating perception of cow milk.
In the eyes of the average dairy farmer, supermarket aisles filled with hemp and pea milk are merely a symptom of a larger development in American culture. “The American population is experiencing a drastic separation from its food supply. We’ve moved from local farmsteads and backyard operations to hyper-efficient corporate entities. Human beings are removed from the soil, the animals, and the processes that provide the nutrients enjoyed. So, it’s easy to walk into a grocery store, pick up a milk carton, and not think about the work that went into that singular unit,” said Michael Benedetti, Senior Director of Quality, Regulation, and Sustainability at Clover Sonoma, a dairy manufacturer based in Northern California. Benedetti connects these concerns to the surge in alternative milks.
Dairy farms in Sonoma County, Clover’s home base, are under pressure by efforts fueled by environmental and ethical concerns. In the 2024 election season, Measure J, a controversial ban on large animal farms, directly targeted dairy cooperatives like Clover Sonoma. More specifically, Measure J aimed to ban medium and large Concentrated Animal Feeding Operations (CAFOs). Most dairy operations in Sonoma County fit the bill of a CAFO, which is defined as facilities where animals are kept in confinement for at least 45 days over a full calendar year and meet or exceed specific size thresholds.
Given California’s leading role in the dairy industry, passing Measure J would have had a major impact. Opponents of the bill, including local farmers, argue that multi-generational family farms would have to shut down operations based on Measure J’s outlined criteria for closure. “It doesn’t matter how big your farm is or how many cows you own. We all rely on each other, and we knew that something like Measure J would cause a ripple effect. The local veterinarian who takes care of the cows will have fewer customers, and the feed mill will probably have to raise prices to stay open. Our production would have taken a 40% hit, give or take,” said Benedetti.
Mainly concerned with ethical animal treatment, Measure J’s provisions were based on large numbers and leave little room for consideration of individual cases. “It doesn’t account for the efforts or pursuits undertaken by local dairy farms. You can be over their perceived limit but practice organic and sustainable measures. When you’re going off the numbers, you don’t get the bigger picture,” said Benedetti.
But dairy farmers didn’t have to hold their breath for long. Early numbers indicated a landslide defeat as 85% of voters rejected Measure J. But despite this win, the average farmer continues to confront milk’s increasingly poor public perception.
In response to environmental concerns, dairy farms take the helm to address their role in the larger agricultural ecosystem. Efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and water contamination from milk production align with programs that educate farmers on nurturing a more sustainable tomorrow.
Kirsten Workman, a Nutrient Management and Environmental Sustainability Specialist at Cornell University, works with farmers in the Finger Lakes region of New York to achieve such goals. “There are a lot of opportunities for increased sustainability for dairy farms, especially with integrated farming where we can analyze the carbon footprint of the crops fed to the cows and the manure used for fertilization. Keeping those resources very circular and in a local loop presents exciting pathways for improvement,” she said.
As a senior extension associate for Pro-DAIRY, a New York state initiative focused on supporting dairy businesses, Workman plays a key role in the Dairy Net Zero Initiative.
Officially known as the Dairy Soil, Water, and Regeneration Project, this national effort is funded by the Foundation for Food and Agriculture Research and the Dairy Research Innovation Center, in collaboration with the Soil Health Institute. Eight universities and research locations across major U.S. dairy-producing areas are collaborating to study greenhouse gas emissions from dairy farm fields like nitrous oxide, methane, and carbon dioxide. Via data collection, researchers aim to refine greenhouse gas models and provide farmers with insights on how to improve both soil health and water quality.
“Tackling the problem from different angles and taking a step back to analyze the whole system is key. We’re going back to square one by understanding cattle nutrition’s impact on emissions or decreasing fertilizer imports. It’s super high-tech and exciting when it comes to these kinds of projects,” Workman said.
Dairy farmers can track carbon emissions from manure and craft plans moving forward with satellite imagery and sensors. Technological advancements allow the expansion of monitoring, enough so that lasers and light imagery have the potential to assess entire fields. Data collection only facilitates greater innovation to meet the needs of farmers, their cattle, and the environment. “It’s all about strengthening that toolbox,” said Workman.
In Clover Sonoma’s case, local farmers share different seeds, grasses, and planting styles to promote regenerative agriculture. Whether through new plowing methods or manure applications to provide better yields, Sonoma County’s dairy scene is leveraging collaboration to strengthen its impact. “Working with your neighbor is really powerful, we’re becoming better farmers because of it,” said Benedetti.
With continued collaboration, technology, and transparency, the dairy sector is poised to meet its goals while showing consumers the commitment to environmental consciousness behind every glass of milk.
“Every morning on my way to work, I pass six or seven dairies with cows grazing on the pasture. It’s a powerful reminder of how we nourish the masses and how our treatment of the land and animals matters. If we want to continue providing, we need to work hard and care about our mission, which comes down to respecting the environment,” said Benedetti.
Though milk’s role in American culture has changed, it has not vanished. “Milk is nostalgic. It’s something people grew up with, and that connection to childhood is still really strong. When people want a glass of milk, they want to feel good about it and enjoy it, no matter if it’s plant or dairy-based,” said Zimmerman.
The market has grown to accommodate new consumer preferences, with an abundance of choice. It might be easy to argue that conventional milk’s pedestal is teetering, but the ‘milk ’-based branding of dairy alternatives proves that milk’s nostalgic appeal will endure. The definition has certainly evolved—but in America’s kitchens, milk is here to stay.