The Republican Party will certainly outlive Donald Trump. But will Trumpism—his movement of conservative nationalist policies, a unitary executive, and fear mongering tactics—persist? On August 23, 2023, eight Republican candidates sparred on Fox News primetime, fighting for the ear of Republican voters. With Trump leading his opponents by 42%, none of the candidates on stage are truly running for the 2024 presidency. For some candidates, however, the 2023 Republican debates represent a fight for the party’s future ideals. This question of the party’s future was epitomized by the palpable tension between two of those on stage: Nikki Haley and Vivek Ramaswamy.
It doesn’t seem that anything, not even a criminal conviction, will substantially shake Trump’s hold on the Republican base in the 2024 race. So why do Haley and Ramaswamy matter? Vivek Ramaswamy and Nikki Haley’s candidacies illustrate two possible and divergent paths for the post-Trump GOP: a shift towards libertarian values or a flight further right into conservatism. Both decades younger than Trump, Haley and Ramaswamy are vying for the same inheritance—the Republican Party.
The Republican Party today encompasses two major ideologies: instrumental conservatism and purist libertarianism. The libertarian wing of the party is intent on expanding individual freedoms and securing individual liberties. The traditional conservative sect of the party retains much of the libertarian sentiment but has prioritized appeasing an evangelical party base over the ideal of limited government intervention.
Ramaswamy embodies far-right conservatism. His campaign has, from the start, been a spectacle—political theater that mimics Trumpist nationalism. Ramaswamy doesn’t shy away from boasting proposed policies that lean even further right than Trump’s.
In contrast, Haley’s campaign is centered around libertarian ideals. Haley is a seasoned politician who is not afraid of pushing back on the establishment—Left or Right. A former Trump appointee herself, Haley is in the race because she recognizes a glaring need within the current political landscape for new leadership and a redirection of her party. She hopes to steer her party back towards policy, away from personality and populism, and to attract moderates who currently reject the Republican Party because of Trump’s extremism.
Historically, the tension between conservatism and libertarianism has culminated in several social issues: restrictive policies on same-sex marriage, strict regulation on drugs like marijuana, and most pressingly today the issue of abortion. Currently, the GOP is aligned with libertarianism when it comes to trade and a free market, but has campaigned on promoting traditional conservative social values through government intervention.
Leaning into traditional conservatism has appealed to the base for the last four major Republican Presidential candidates. However, with the exception of Bush’s re-election in 2004, no Republican presidential candidate won the popular vote. This sole popular victory can easily be attributed to Bush’s embracement of a term he coined compassionate conservatism—a second look at traditional conservatism that incorporates social welfare initiatives through initiatives like the No Child Left Behind Act of 2001. The philosophy was successful against Bush’s Democratic opponents because they could no longer dismiss Republicans as uncompassionate towards social issues.
In the backdrop of the contention between Haley and Ramaswamy, who currently are neck and neck at 7% each in the primary field, is a struggle to adapt to the influence of a changing electorate. This past spring Brookings revealed the obvious: the Democratic party has virtually monopolized the votes of an entire generation of young people for the first time since Boomers began to turn 18. Republicans rely on a traditional evangelical conservative base–an aging one–to secure votes. This base will certainly be active this election and next, but as the times change, so do voters. The many indicators that society is progressively becoming more inclusive is a wake up call for the Republican Party.
Conservatism in today’s America requires a rebrand of Bush’s compassionate conservatism to accommodate an increasingly diverse population and a new generation of socially progressive voters: Gen Z Libertarianism—a broad philosophy which underscores individual autonomy both socially and politically—is the ideal path forward for Republicans looking to contend in future national elections.
Nikki Haley recognizes this need for a shift in the Republican Party’s ideology. In recent campaign stops, she has said that Republicans need a “new generational conservative leader” if they want to start winning the popular vote.
Leading with words, she was the first of the candidates on stage to acknowledge climate change, an issue very important to the younger generation of voters. In the first Republican primary debate, Haley said, “First of all, we do care about clean air, clean water, we want to see that taken care of, but there’s a right way to do it. And the right way to do it is, first of all: is climate change real? Yes, it is.”
Climate change will continue to emerge at the forefront of public consciousness as the crisis worsens. Today a majority of Americans describe it as a major threat to the country’s well being. Roughly half of young Republicans—what will be the future makeup of the party—increasingly want their lawmakers to take further action to address the looming threat. It is becoming rapidly clear that the next generation of voters won’t give Republican candidates the time of day if climate change is dismissed on their platforms.
Still, Haley does not entirely dismiss conservative talking points even as she takes amore moderate stance. She has called out the hypocrisy of China and India and their role in the climate crisis, stating that solutions to climate change require a global effort.
While Haley has emphasized transparency on controversial issues and promoted moderation, Ramaswamy consistently takes extreme stances that appeal to the far right. In the August GOP primary debate, Ramaswamy refused to address climate change, calling the agenda a “hoax.”
He told viewers, “I’m the only one on this stage who isn’t bought and paid for, so I can say this. The climate change agenda is a hoax…More people are dying of actual bad climate change policies than they are of actual climate change.”
This kind of rhetoric is red meat for the ravenous far right base he’s looking to appease. However, Ramaswamy won’t win general elections going forward if he ignores public sentiment and constantly dismisses the issue.
Moreover, Ramaswamy and Haley’s clash on Ukraine reminds us of why foreign policy experience is vital in a national leader. In the last five years, Haley has spent time negotiating with U.S. foreign adversaries—China, Russia, and Iran—and defended global allies. Ramaswamy has done asset management. This contrast was never more evident than when the Ukraine conflict was brought up in the August debate.
During the debate, Haley articulated the need for U.S. support for Ukraine while rebuking the claim that the U.S. has devoted too much of its military budget to foreign aid. She explained to isolationist Republicans, who believe U.S. involvement will provoke World War III, that “Ukraine is the first line of defense for us…and a win for Russia is a win for China.” The complexity of relationships with foreign leaders like Xi Jinping, Vladmir Putin, and Kim Jong Un, requires a U.S. President with diplomatic experience.
Further, Haley’s support of the U.S. provision of aid to Ukraine appeals to the general electorate. There is more national agreement between Republicans and Democrats on Americans’ support of Ukraine than on most other international issues: an estimated 63% of Americans support sending arms. This stance exemplifies Haley’s attempt to move her party towards reasonable conservatism and realistic foreign policy—and consequently help the GOP win the popular vote going forth.
While Ramaswamy may be a master of marketing, his novice understanding of foreign relations is glaring. Ramaswamy stated that “Today, Ukraine is not a priority of the United States of America.”
Not only does this statement conflict with the views of the average American voter, it avoids actually answering the Ukraine question. Lacking any policy sophistication, this response is a prime example of Ramaswamy’s personality politics at play.
Ramaswamy, in his attempts to appeal to a far-right contingent of voters, is absurd, bordering on inauthentic. One of Ramaswamy’s most frequent talking points is eliminating DEI efforts as he wages a rhetorical war on anything “woke”. However, as recently as 2020, a company he founded and served as CEO of—Roivant Sciences—has developed a social-impact arm promoting the very initiatives he now opposes.
This last June, Ramaswamy wished viewers a “happy Juneteenth,” and two months later called it a ‘useless’ holiday. He advocated for cutting off aid and support to Israel by 2028, but after Israel declared war on Hamas, Ramaswamy tweeted, “I stand with Israel and the U.S. should too.” His campaign is one of hypocrisy.
While Trump was a public figure for decades before seeking public office and his conservative views were well-established, Ramaswamy had no well-known politics prior to taking office. There isn’t political history to base his present candidacy off of. This makes it challenging for Republicans to trust Ramaswamy’s authenticity. Is Ramaswamy merely a bored billionaire seeking power and influence, or does he have genuine conservative convictions that fall further right than Trump’s?
Haley has been consistently conservative her entire political career, while also recognizing the need for social change and progress. In the aftermath of a mass shooting targeting a Black church in her state in 2015, she attended service thereafter, and called for the removal of the Confederate flag from the South Carolina state Capitol. In the August debate, Haley candidly spoke of abortion amidst a panel of candidates unwilling to do so. While Tim Scott and Mike Pence held absolutist views of “life”, and DeSantis tip-toed around it, Nikki Haley was outright in recognizing that strict abortion access isn’t reflective of the public sentiment towards abortion.
As the future of the Republican party remains unclear, Republican office-seekers must temper conservative ideals and work libertarianism back into the party’s fold to gain popularity again. There is an inevitably changing electorate—younger people as a whole are more progressive and diverse—and Republicans must accommodate this. To win elections going forward—on issues ranging from foreign policy to abortion—Republicans need to undertake a moral and electoral reckoning. A change in ideology is necessary for the party’s survival. Nikki Haley is the only candidate in the 2024 race who is concerned for the party’s future, not just her own political performance.