The Grand Old Party is in disorder. The “Make America Great Again” faction of the GOP is salivating over the inevitable return of Donald Trump. However, during this two-year Trump hiatus, some members of the faction—primarily younger and middle-aged adults—are flocking to the leadership of Florida Governor Ron DeSantis ’01. It may be hard to delineate the two men, but as the calendar gets closer to 2024, there is a growing difference between these two personalities. The Republican party’s long-term survival depends on the impending choice between propping up Trump for a third run or looking toward a new leader to occupy the White House. DeSantis is a clean slate for Republicans, and a fresh start is exactly what most moderate Americans are looking for. Reverting to Trump means cutting deeper into the wound of partisanship that festers within American democracy.
The party faces a silent and secret predicament. As Governor of Florida, DeSantis has created a new strain of Trumpism that both confirms and challenges Trump’s candidacy. By putting “Florida First” instead of “America First,” DeSantis has found his niche, capitalizing on his stardom to create a platform that resonates more broadly with moderate Republicans. Yet, DeSantis and Republican candidates like him cannot divorce themselves from Trump completely. Abandoning Trump would split the party before the midterm elections. Avoiding Trump would forfeit the culture war that he has championed and led. And things could get a lot messier for every Republican seeking re-election or elevated status in the party if they were to dare admonish Trump. Most reasonable Republicans want DeSantis to be the eventual candidate for president, but no one wants to say it. That’s the dilemma.
“The future is definitely Governor Ron DeSantis, but I don’t know when that is,” said Brendon Leslie. Leslie is a Florida Republican who founded and serves as the Editor-in-Chief of Florida’s Voice, a conservative outlet covering Florida politics. “As someone that’s very connected with both camps,” Leslie explained, “I can tell you Trump is running [in 2024], and I can tell you that DeSantis is only focused on 2022.” Leslie wanted to make clear that “We can’t be divided as conservatives. That’s when we’re at our weakest.”
DeSantis has uniquely navigated receiving Trump’s endorsement and support but not being confined by it, a balance that several other Republican politicians fail to find.
“I say it all the time. You can’t put all your eggs in one basket, you gotta stay on your own two feet,” said Leslie. “Having Trump’s support is important and great, but okay, after that, let’s talk about the real issues. And that’s what DeSantis does.” Leslie’s hesitancy to pick between Trump and DeSantis perfectly exemplified the tension within the party and the inevitable roadblock the two GOP leaders will face as 2024 inches closer. He wanted to say DeSantis, but he couldn’t. Not yet, at least.
DeSantis graduated with honors from Yale College in 2001 as the captain of his varsity baseball team. He went on to Harvard Law and later served as a decorated officer in the U.S. Navy. Following his service in the Navy, DeSantis became a federal prosecutor, and in 2013 was elected to the United States House of Representatives where he championed term limits and lower taxes. His biography is picture-perfect for an electable conservative politician. Yet, ironically, DeSantis’s appeal is that he is neither the establishment nor a typical Republican politician. He spews rhetoric, but he also follows it up with executive action or legislative change, a balance; typically unheard of with a Republican governor. DeSantis walks the fine line that Trump could never, and plays politics as good as anyone.
DeSantis rose to stardom within the party and resonated with Republicans and independents across the country as he embraced a freedom-based approach to the pandemic: optional mask-wearing, vaccine lenience, and the choice to continue operating businesses, schools, and places of worship. As Californians saw Governor Gavin Newsom lavishly attend The French Laundry restaurant in Napa Valley while their kindergarteners were told to wear masks and socially distance in class, DeSantis allowed parents to regulate their family’s lives without state involvement.
Democratic governors’ failures would fall right into DeSantis’s lap. When the “hero of the pandemic” New York Governor Andrew Cuomo began sending COVID-positive patients to nursing homes, it became evident this was directly contributing to spikes in death rates among the most vulnerable. Unfortunately, but typical for politics, this tragedy became an asset to DeSantis, a governor who had taken a far different approach to dealing with the pandemic.
As Ellen Degeneres announced herself to be a “Cuomosexual,” Republicans seized upon this as confirmation that the left, mainstream media, and Hollywood were wrong about all they spoke of involving COVID-19; there couldn’t be a better “gotcha” moment for DeSantis and anyone politically opposite of Cuomo during this scandal. Of course, this grew to be a huge mistake. It led Republicans in rural enclaves to seek out echo chambers of anti-vaccine beliefs and exacerbated distrust of governmental agencies. Many elderly Republicans would end up dying because of this politicization of COVID.
Though there are far more nuanced realities surrounding the pandemic and the relationship between states and their role in guaranteeing personal liberties, what the average working person in America saw was a governor in Florida willing to relinquish personal authority in a time where alterations of preordained liberties were sweeping the country. The issue of protection against COVID became hotly contested given there was little information to be uncovered of the virus and its prevention in the early stages.
DeSantis created a narrative that presented Americans with a choice: freedom versus restriction. It was cut-and-dry to half of the country. And anti-government rhetoric in the name of freedom will almost always be the choice of a conservative. This distrust in government involvement was always there, but Republicans led by DeSantis could now finally tap into it. The government wasn’t trying to take everyone’s guns, but it was trying to change everyday life by limiting one’s freedom of movement and right to pursue happiness. This was DeSantis’s framing.
During the years that Trump has been out of office, his relevance has remained within a strong base of the party, but his footing with independent voters has slipped drastically given the many events that have taken place since his exit. The recent DOJ criminal investigation, Trump’s relentless struggle to admit he lost the 2020 election, and Congressional hearings on the Capitol attack on January 6, 2021 — listened to by over 18 million Americans according to Bloomberg — are all contributing to Trump’s dwindling support among independents, who helped push him over the finish line in 2016. Politico found that after the hearings, 63% of independents hold Trump responsible for the events of January 6. This is concerning for Trump because, with splits in the GOP, independent support in 2024 will be even more necessary than in 2016 and 2020.
In 2016, Trump was able to gain support from many establishment Republicans that were willing to overlook his trashing of former Senator John McCain and President George W. Bush, flip-flopping on social issues such as abortion and gay marriage, and mean tweets. Today, that support is gone and can’t be underestimated. He’s alienated the former GOP that existed before his presidency. Though it certainly is a different base today than it was before, the McCain, Senator Mitt Romney (R-UT), Senator Mitch McConnell (R-KY), and Bush Republicans still exist; they are now labeled “Liz Cheney Republicans.” If they were willing to swallow their pride in 2016, it’s hard to say that they would do the same eight years later.
It’s clear that Trump’s wrath has gone too far, and despite any accolades he may have earned within the party leading up to 2020, his White House exit was simply too chaotic for his political stamina to survive. Losing cut deep and showed us that there are significant fractures found within Trump’s ego when confronted with a loss. He can’t accept the fate of concession. In return, DeSantis has absorbed the stamina of Trump and the base, whether people within the party acknowledge it or not. It’s there; the conflict between leaving behind the leader of a movement for someone of its creation.
A survey conducted in early September showed that 48% of Republicans or Independents who lean Republican would still favor Trump in a 2024 matchup against Governor DeSantis (34%). Though this shows Trump still has influence in the party, it is key because it shows much closer contention within the party than what could’ve been expected just a year ago. It shouldn’t be overlooked that in 2018 Trump’s approval ratings within the party exceeded 90%. His ratings are now half of what it was then — likely due to the election fraud claims, his absence on Twitter leading to a lack of relevance, and the lawsuits and investigations hurled at Trump.
This recent survey is also important because it shows DeSantis with a six-point advantage over Trump with moderate independent voters. Though these numbers alone signal alarm for the Trump camp, I would argue that these margins will be much slimmer when election season comes around in 2024. Trump has just recently received around a 10-point boost in the polls conducted with Republicans because of the Mar-A-Lago raid. This too will fade. DeSantis will cruise to a comfortable victory in his gubernatorial re-election campaign in Florida and continue to fill the void that Trump previously occupied within the party. It may take time to tell, but Trump’s influence is declining, and Republicans would be smart to let it happen.
The dilemma Republicans face will ironically be one of winning and losing. And Republicans will have to divorce Trump to win another general election. A toxic relationship within the Republican party finds itself displaced in national politics. It is difficult to break up with a former president who succeeded in checking off issues on his agenda: securing three conservative justices to the supreme court, introducing stronger immigration policy, and bringing tax relief to the middle class. Additionally, passing the torch can be hard when the one holding the torch doesn’t want to let go. Ultimately, Trump has to hand over the baton to DeSantis if he wants his “America First” agenda to win the race. DeSantis can be elected, Trump cannot. The problem is that Trump’s personal success and goals often outweigh any greater good for a group that doesn’t include him as the centerpiece.
Despite any assurance that his populist agenda is “led by the people,” rest assured that Trump wants everyone to know he is the agenda. Trump doesn’t want to just be in the party, or at the party for that matter. Trump wants to be the party. It’s why the Trump name is plastered in the minds of every American when they think of the Republican Party and even more generally American politics. And it’s why the Republican Party would be better off shifting into a phase of DeSantis. It’s not just about winning the election of 2024, it’s about the survival of a party, and moreso, the survival of a democracy. To maintain a true functioning democracy in the United States, we need two healthy parties constantly bringing strong competition for voters. That is not possible in the current state of the GOP, with 345 candidates on the ballot not willing to concede the election results of 2020. The Republican party’s survival depends on this crucial choice.
In the impending decision between Ronald or Donald, Republicans should swallow Trump’s ego and choose Ronald. It would be wise for Republicans to ride the momentum of DeSantis into a general election that would finally be a redirecting back to the state of the nation, the policies that affect Americans, and a lane-change from the election-denying, hate-filled political cycle that has consumed us all for over six years now.