Before we get to our post-mortem on Tuesday night’s Republican gains, here’s a rundown on what’s still left to be called.
Virginia Senate (Warner-D)
In this shockingly close race—we rated it Safe Democratic, though Likely Democratic would probably have been wiser in hindsight—Sen. Mark Warner leads by only 0.8pt and some news organizations haven’t yet called the race. Barring some kind of counting error, however, we don’t really see where Ed Gillespie can pick up 17,000 votes, especially since the <1% of the vote outstanding is mostly in urban counties where Mr. Warner is winning. This should be the Democrats’ 46th seat.
Louisiana Senate (Landrieu-D)
While her fate will be prolonged until a December runoff due to Louisiana’s “jungle primary” system, Sen. Mary Landrieu is on the ropes. She barely scraped by Rep. Bill Cassidy on Election Day (with just 42% of the vote) despite Tea Partier Rob Maness drawing 14%; in a head-to-head matchup, we don’t see a viable path for her. This is pretty solidly #53 for the GOP.
Alaska Senate (Begich-D)
This is the most muddled race, and we should have a full piece out on it by the end of the week. Sen. Mark Begich trails Republican Dan Sullivan by 4pt (8,000 votes), but a significant number of votes (perhaps as many as 50,000) remains to be counted as absentee ballots as well as votes from Alaska’s most remote areas remain to be tallied. We won’t receive a significantly updated tally until Monday, but it seems probable that the outstanding vote is favorable to Mr. Begich—in 2008, he trailed after Election Night also—but it probably won’t be enough for him to pass Mr. Sullivan. Begich aides are banking on their outreach in Native Alaskan villages paying dividends—those votes are underrepresented in the current returns—for him to have a chance.
Alaska Governor (Parnell-R)
Running somewhat ahead of Mr. Begich is independent gubernatorial candidate Bill Walker, who leads Republican Gov. Sean Parnell by about 3,000 votes. Due to the apparent pro-Democratic tilt of late returns, it is hard to see Mr. Parnell making up the gap, but we again have to wait until next week for the next big round of counting.
Vermont Governor (Shumlin-D)
In a race that wasn’t pegged as close by any analysts, Gov. Peter Shumlin, chairman of the Democratic Governors Association, is clinging to a 1pt (2,000 vote) lead in Vermont. While there isn’t really any vote out and Mr. Shumlin seems assured of a plurality, Vermont law dictates that a gubernatorial election without a majority is decided by the state legislature. Since the legislature is heavily Democratic and has not, in any case, chosen anyone other than the leading candidate since the 19th century, this should be a formality.
House of Representatives
With the races that have been called, Republicans have a 243-178 edge in the House and have gained 15 Democratic seats while losing one of their own (FL-02). There are fourteen races remaining to be called, including two heading to runoffs, two intra-party races, and ten traditional contests, of which six are in notoriously slow-counting California.
LA-05, LA-06: These two Louisiana House races are headed to runoffs that should easily be won by Republicans Ralph Abraham and Garrett Graves, respectively; it was only the “jungle primary” with multiple Republicans that prevented a majority on Election Night. Both were previously held by Republicans.
CA-17: This race in Silicon Valley pitted two Democrats, Rep. Mike Honda and Ro Khanna, a more business-friendly Democrat who was heavily backed by tech companies. Mr. Honda has a 52-48 lead, but a good amount of vote is probably outstanding and there’s not much precedent for where the late vote will break in an intra-party struggle like this one.
WA-04: In the mirror image of CA-17, moderate Republican Dan Newhouse has a slight lead (51-49) over Tea Partier Clint Didier in this conservative eastern Washington district. Only 64% of the vote has been counted, so this is very much up in the air.
MD-06, NY-25: In two places where Democrats massively underperformed, Maryland and upstate New York, two incumbents thought quite safe are clinging to small leads. Louise Slaughter holds 50.2% of the vote in NY-25 (only a 600-vote lead over Mark Assisi), while John Delaney is clinging to a 2,000-vote spread over Daniel Bongino in MD-06.
AZ-02: In a highly contested rematch for the seat formerly occupied by Gabrielle Giffords, Republican Martha McSally has a 1,300-vote lead over Rep. Ron Barber, a former Giffords aide. When they faced each other in 2012, however, Mr. Barber trailed after Election Night but gained several thousand votes on Ms. McSally over the course of absentee counting; if this happens again, he should prevail.
NE-02, CA-31: In what would be the second and third House takeovers for Democrats on an otherwise gloomy night, Rep. Lee Terry (R, NE-02) is down 4,000 votes to State Sen. Brad Ashford and looks finished. The open seat in California, vacated by Rep. Gary Miller (R) has Democrat Pete Aguilar holding a 1,700-vote lead over Paul Chabot. This is a strong Republican showing in a district that President Obama won by 16pt in 2012, but Mr. Aguilar should hold on given that late California vote tends to break Democratic.
CA-07, CA-09, CA-16, CA-26, CA-52: An odd quintet of Democratic California incumbents finishes the list, all of which sit within a few thousand votes with a lot outstanding. Two, Ami Bera in the 7th and Scott Peters in the 52nd, were locked in toss-ups for the whole campaign, while Jerry McNerney (9th) and Jim Costa (16th) were thought invulnerable until votes started pouring in. Julia Brownley (26th) was somewhere in the middle, but all five are now locked into slow grinding of California election returns. As we said before, Democrats tend to do well in late returns, and we would treat all five as favorites. Mr. Bera, who trails by 3,000 votes, is the most vulnerable. Mr. Costa and Mr. Peters both trail by 800, while Ms. Brownley and Mr. McNerney have narrow leads of 500 and 2,400 votes, respectively.
Our best guess is that Democrats will win eight of the contested ten races, plus a ninth in CA-17, giving them a total of 187 seats, while Republicans pick up the remaining five for a total of 248 seats. Rep. Greg Walden, chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee, began the cycle with a “Drive for 245.” This would be the largest Republican majority since 1928, when they won 270 seats. If the Democrats manage to win all ten remaining contested seats (not including the Louisiana runoffs), then the Republicans’ majority of 246 will match their total from the 1946 elections. However, larger margins have occurred more recently on the Democratic side: in 2008, Democrats won 257 seats in the election coinciding with President Obama’s election, and Democrats held over 250 seats from 1974 to 1994, with only one exception (1980-82).