In August 2022, the international community carefully watched as William Ruto was elected president of Kenya. Ethnic and socioeconomic cleavages, which reached their climax during the electoral contentions and violence of 1992, 1997, and 2007, led international spectators to observe this year’s election with hopes for a peaceful electoral season. The Council on Foreign Relations claimed that the elections would “undoubtedly be among the most consequential political events in Africa” of the year.
For many Kenyans, however, the election was politics as usual. Getrude Kiptoo ‘26, who grew up in Kenya, describes the general attitude of Kenyan citizens towards the political process as one characterized by apathy. “I think as [the] years go by, people get less interested in politics because they just see no point,” Kiptoo said. “People get into power and nothing changes.”
The election took place during a time of economic anxiety and discontent amplified by a combination of geopolitical crises including the war in Ukraine, the pandemic, and the strain of debt created by Chinese-funded rail projects. The war has resulted in significant disruption to the food supply chain, leading to higher prices of food and fuel.
Kenya suffers from a significant public debt burden, and Ruto’s hopes to bring down recurrent expenditures will undoubtedly require significant changes to the financial budget. In late September, Ruto ordered the finance ministry to cut 300 billion Kenyan shillings, or 2.5 billion US dollars, from annual government spending.
Ruto’s economic promises revolved around the idea of a “bottom-up approach” to the economy: creating solutions primarily based on the well-being of the people. This would essentially mean transitioning from an emphasis on elites to an emphasis on local community engagement. Since many citizens feel disillusioned by the possibility of change, which will impact whether future generations of Kenyans like Kiptoo regain trust in their political institutions, it will be crucial to observe the extent to which Ruto fulfills his extensive campaign promises.
But how much do these promises really matter? According to Kiptoo, the election was, in many ways, more about ethnic divisions and endorsement than about policy differences. The Kikuyu people account for approximately 17% of Kenya’s population, making them the country’s largest ethnic group. The second largest group, the Luhya, makes up 14% of the population. Kenyan political life has been characterized by ethnic rivalry between the larger groups since the country gained independence in 1963. Kiptoo stressed the importance of a candidate’s ethnic identification and the consequent significance of strategically appealing to as many voters as possible. “Basically, if the guy running for president isn’t a Kikuyu, he needs to make sure that his running mate is,” she said.
Saskia Brechenmacher, a fellow in the Democracy, Conflict, and Governance Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, agrees that talking about political ideological differences as a major factor in Kenya’s recent presidential election “isn’t really the right lens.” Due to the ethnic nature of coalition building in Kenya, ethnic divides have played a central role in deciding the outcome of major elections.
Brechenmacher blamed politicians for sometimes going too far in exploiting ethnic divisions. “Elections in the past have turned violent in Kenya not because of animosity or hostility on the side of the population, but because politicians have mobilized people into violence,” said Brechenmacher.
Kenya’s history of political violence in elections is complex. After a disputed result in 2007, widespread violence resulted in over 1,200 deaths. It also led to an investigation by the International Criminal Court into politicians accused of provoking ethnic division and funding death squads. In the aftermath of the presidential election in 2017, protests and other political activity led to crackdowns on Kenyan residents, involving police brutality and unlawful killings.
Freedom House, a non-governmental organization that scores countries on their levels of freedom, monitors political rights and civil liberties across the world. In 2022, the organization gave Kenya a score of 48 out of 100, classifying it as “partly free.” Issues with the electoral laws and framework led Kenya to score lower on questions relating to free and fair elections.
Looking at the breakdown of this score reveals the particular shortcomings of political rights in Kenya. Freedom House takes into account how groups such as the Mungiki, a Kikuyu-affiliated gang, use their power to impact electoral outcomes through violence and intimidation tactics. There are also barriers to the participation of LGBTQ+ and non-Christian people in Kenyan political life.
However, government officials have prioritized peacebuilding initiatives. As a response to the political violence of the 2007 election, Kenya adopted a new constitution in 2010 that segmented the country into 47 counties. The goal was to allow centralized power to develop into a more regional model and help de-escalate political tension. After the contentious presidential election in 2017, rivals Raila Odinga and Uhuru Kenyatta proposed the Building Bridges Initiative, which organized a task force that developed recommendations for changing government structures ahead of the 2022 elections. Odinga was Ruto’s major opponent in this year’s election.
Kenya’s history of electoral issues prompts an important question: Why was this year’s election in Kenya so important to international observers? Onlookers may erroneously see this election as a peaceful turning point in the history of elections in Kenya. For Kenyan citizens, however, institutional issues clearly persist, and future solutions are far from evident. It is easy to assume that the outcome of the election could have some impact on the future of political accountability in Kenya, but this isn’t necessarily the case. Ruto’s election is evidently an important turning point in the country’s history, but reinforcing institutional capacity and political participation after Election Day are crucial nonetheless.
Institution-building is crucial for influencing the younger generation’s perception of their role in democracy. Even though the 18-35 age group makes up 75% of Kenya’s population, only 40% of registered voters are in this bracket according to the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission. Kiptoo stated that youth were generally outspoken about the election, indicating that the choice to stay away from the ballot box may not be purely motivated by detachment or indifference. For members of Kiptoo’s generation, it may be that choosing not to vote is another way of using their voice in Kenyan political life. The role of Kenyan youths in this election emphasizes the importance of calling on government officials to uphold the tenets of democracy.