For many political–minded Yale students, Tuesday, November 8 marks the date of the Ward 1 Aldermanic election, in which students will decide between Sarah Eidelson (JE ’12) and Vinay Nayak (DC ’14). But this election — while, of course, an important one — is just the tip of Tuesday’s electoral iceberg. November 8 will feature two gubernatorial contests, three state legislative elections, three state judicial elections and a number of other local elections and ballot initiatives across the country.
Kentucky will host the most closely watched gubernatorial election Tuesday, with Democratic Gov. Steve Beshear running for reelection against Republican State Senate President David Williams and Independent Gatewood Galbraith. Although Kentucky is an increasingly red state and Republicans hold the vast majority of US Congressional seats, Beshear is heavily favored for reelection. Despite the state’s troubled economy, Beshear is extremely popular and polls indicate that he may end up winning the election by one of the largest margins in state history.
Mississippi will also have an election for governor on Tuesday. This contest will pit Republican Lt. Gov. Phil Bryant against Democratic Hattiesburg Mayor Johnny Dupree. (Current Gov. Haley Barbour is term–limited and barred from seeking reelection.) Dupree has enjoyed significant national press, due to the historic nature of his candidacy — he is the first black major-party gubernatorial nominee in the state since Reconstruction. Nonetheless, Mississippi is overwhelmingly conservative and Bryant is seen as a near-lock to win.
Another important race with national implications is being held in Oregon Tuesday, with both the Democratic and Republican primary elections for the Second Congressional District. (Democratic Rep. David Wu resigned August 3 after accusations surfaced that he made sexual advances on the daughter of a fundraiser.) Democrats are favored to hold the seat in next year’s general election, but any major upsets in the primaries could drastically alter the race.
Mississippi, New Jersey and Virginia will hold state legislative elections Tuesday, with 434 total seats in play. Republicans hope to extend their significant 2010 successes on this level, while Democrats will attempt to halt the GOP’s momentum.
In Mississippi, Republicans control the State Senate, while Democrats control the State House (their control has been uninterrupted since Reconstruction). The increasingly Republican nature of state has convinced Republicans that they may finally be able to seize of both chambers this year, and GOP–allied groups have spent more than $1 million targeting the Democrats’ 13-seat majority in the State House. Although the Republicans are poised to have some success this election, it is unclear whether they will ultimately be able to take control of the House.
Virginia also has a divided legislature, and Republicans believe this election will allow them to seize control of the State Senate. The Democrats hold a 22 to 18 majority in the Senate and have stymied much of the Republican governor and House’s plans. This election is expected to be a nail–biter and, whichever way it goes, is likely to be hailed as a harbinger for the 2012 Presidential contest in the battleground state.
In New Jersey, Democrats are expected to retain both the State House and State Senate. If Democrats lose either chamber, it would represent a major defeat for the state party. (The Northern Mariana Islands will elect their territorial legislators Tuesday as well.)
Iowa will host one special election Tuesday that could determine control of the State Senate. The Democrats held a 26-24 majority in that chamber following the 2010 election, but Republican Gov. Terry Branstad appointed Sen. Swati Dandekar to a post on the Iowa Utilities Board, creating an opportunity for the GOP to assume full control of the legislature. The district leans Republican, and a Democratic defeat there would allow Iowa Republicans to move forward with measures concerning abortion and gay marriage that the State Senate has foiled so far. The election is expected to be close, although polls indicate that Democrat Liz Mathis may have a slight advantage.
Arguably the most–watched and most exciting votes of the year, however, will be ballot initiatives and referendums. 27 ballot questions will appear in 7 states on Election Day, including Arkansas, Maine, Mississippi, New Jersey, Ohio, Texas and Washington. (Louisiana residents will vote on a ballot initiative on November 19.)
In Maine and Mississippi, voters will decide whether to alter the state’s election laws. Conservatives in Maine are seeking to end same–day voting registration while an initiative in Mississippi would require voters to present a photo ID at the polls. Both measures are opposed by national Democrats.
Mississippi will also feature a vote on a “personhood” law, which would define human personhood as beginning at the moment of conception. The measure, which aims to prevent abortions in the state, was believed to have the support to pass, although a Public Policy Polling survey that came out Monday found Mississippians support it only 45-44. Opponents have widely ridiculed the measure in the national press and passage will almost certainly be challenged in the courts.
The most expensive and closely watched initiative, however, will take place in Ohio. The state’s Republican governor and legislature passed a law limiting the collective bargaining rights of public employees in the state this year. A measure is on the ballot to repeal the law. Recent polling suggest that the repeal is widely favored and unions across the state are planning a massive get–out–the–vote effort Tuesday. GOP activist groups have spent heavily, however, and another ballot measure that would exempt Ohioans from healthcare mandates — federal law would trump such a measure regardless — may attract enough conservative to the polls in an off-year election to pull off an upset. The result will receive significant national attention whichever way it goes.
Several large cities will hold mayoral races, including Baltimore, MD; Charlotte, NC; Houston, TX; Indianapolis, IN; New Haven, CT; Philadelphia, PA; Portland, ME (which, thanks to a 2010 referendum, will be holding its first mayoral election since abolishing the position in 1923); San Francisco, CA; and Tucson, AZ. A Democrat is favored in almost all of these contests.
Louisiana and Pennsylvania will also hold judicial elections on Tuesday while Kentucky, Louisiana and Mississippi will elect Secretaries of State, State Treasurers, State Attorneys General, State Auditors and Commissioners of Insurance and Agriculture. In various municipalities across the country, voters will also choose a county executive or county commissioner. Such elections in Allegheny and Montgomery Counties, Pennsylvania and Broome, Erie, Monroe and Suffolk Counties, New York have all been expensive and divisive affairs. November 8 will also feature numerous city and county council, school board, and other local elections across the country.
The Politic urges all eligible Yale students — and all registered voters across the United States — to vote on Tuesday, November 8. Off-year elections are generally low-turnout events and just a few votes can truly make an enormous difference. As William Simon once said, “Bad politicians are sent to Washington by good people that don’t vote.” No matter whom you vote for, make sure you vote!