When Sen. John Kerry campaigns for Massachusetts Senate candidate Elizabeth Warren, he seldom mentions Warren by name. Even less common is a reference to Scott Brown, the commonwealth’s other incumbent Senator and Warren’s Republican opponent.
“I’m not here to make a case against anyone,” Kerry said at a Somerville rally in late September in which he did not mention Brown once. He elaborated, stating, “This race is frankly bigger than either of the candidates who are running. It is a fight for the Senate itself.”
Although few believe Kerry’s infrequent mentions of Brown stem from a desire to see the Republican triumph in this year’s Senate contest, a Brown victory would likely help Kerry down the road. One of Washington’s worst kept secrets is Kerry’s aspiration to be the next Secretary of State — Hillary Clinton has repeatedly stated that she plans to leave the post should President Obama win a second term. Kerry is the Chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee as well as a friend and strong ally of the President.
Alec Gerlach, Kerry’s press secretary, would not comment on whether the Senator will actively seek the Secretary of State position if Clinton steps down. “John Kerry is committed to serving the people of Massachusetts as a United States Senator,” Gerlach said.
But Fred Bayles, the director of Boston University’s Statehouse Program and a former national correspondent for The Associated Press, said that Kerry would be an obvious — and highly qualified — choice for Secretary of State if he wants it. “He’s never going to be President, so the question is whether he wants something next to his name besides Senator,” said Bayles. “And if he does, that means there will be another special election for the Senate in Massachusetts.”
A Kerry appointment, however, becomes a far trickier proposition for the Obama administration if Brown is out of a job. The 2012 elections will almost certainly leave the Senate extremely narrowly divided, where just one or two seats separate the two parties from control of the chamber. Such a situation will undoubtedly give the Obama administration pause before nominating Kerry to a Cabinet post and jeopardizing a previously safe Senate seat.
If Obama were to nominate Kerry, a special election would be held within 160 days to replace him. Many Democrats could step forward to run, including Gov. Deval Patrick, Lt. Gov. Tim Murray, Rep. Stephen Lynch and Rep. Michael Capuano (D-Mass.), who mounted an unsuccessful Senate run in 2009.
Republicans, however, have an extremely shallow bench in Massachusetts — aside from Brown, not a single statewide officeholder is in the GOP. If Kerry vacates his seat, the state party will indeed push Brown hard to run in a Senate special election. Brown, who won his current seat in a 2009 special election, would be an immediate frontrunner in a race to replace Kerry. In addition to solid name recognition and fundraising prowess, Brown would be aided by the absence of Presidential coattails. Even in this year’s fierce Senate contest, Brown has maintained a decent approval rating and image of moderation.
Spencer Kimball, a Massachusetts-based political consultant, said that Brown would be well-positioned to run for Kerry’s seat if he vacates it. “If Brown loses [this year], he will only lose by two or three points, so he would certainly be in contention against any other candidate,” he said. “And before the special election he won in 2010 he had a career of special election wins. He is a very good candidate.”
Kimball added, “Perhaps he is made for special elections.”
If Brown wins reelection on Tuesday, the political calculus of appointing Kerry — who will be campaigning for Warren in Massachusetts on November 5 and 6 — becomes much easier for President Obama. In addition to the Patrick, Murray, Lynch and Capuano, the Democrats could always nominate Warren again. Republicans, on the other hand, would have to scramble to find a qualified candidate.
But if Warren emerges victorious on Election Day — as a series of recent polls indicate — both Democrat and Republican-leaning political consultants agree Brown is far from done in electoral politics.
“Scott Brown could well run in another special election,” said Bayles. “It would take a lot of hubris to do that, but politicians are no shrinking violets.”