Election day is less than a month away, if you can believe it. Let’s take a look at where things stand in races across the country.
AK-SEN, AR-SEN: We are moving the reelection campaigns of Democratic Sens. Mark Begich (AK) and Mark Pryor (AR) from Toss-Up to Leans Republican. This is not a reflection of a substantive change in either race, but rather an acknowledgement that time is running out to define their Republican opponents, Dan Sullivan and Rep. Tom Cotton, as unpalatable options for their conservative constituencies. Polls have consistently given Mr. Begich and Mr. Pryor narrow deficits over the past month, and we feel that the “Leans” rating should apply to any race where one side has a clearly discernible advantage. But both are still fighting hard and shouldn’t be written off: former President and Arkansas Gov. Bill Clinton is about to begin a highly publicized campaign tour on behalf of Mr. Pryor, gubernatorial candidate Mike Ross, and Arkansas candidates for the U.S. House. Polls in Alaska are notoriously unreliable due to the state’s unique geography and Mr. Begich has invested heavily in outreach in remote towns and Alaskan Native villages.
CT-GOV: With over a month since Quinnipiac went into the field for the last public poll of the Connecticut gubernatorial race, we noted last week that the ground could have shifted significantly since August, when Republican Tom Foley held a modest lead over unpopular Gov. Dannel Malloy. If a poll released Monday by Public Policy Polling is to be taken at face value, that eventuality has materialized quite abruptly. Hammered by a blitz of negative ads, Mr. Foley’s favorable/unfavorable spread has plunged from +9 to an ugly -15 (Mr. Malloy’s improved slightly, from -13 to -10) and Mr. Malloy has taken a six-point lead. While we would be loath to take too much stock in a single poll, we are moving this race to Toss-Up; if further polls are consistent with PPP’s results, that could easily shift further.
KS-SEN: Some believed after Democrat Chad Taylor dropped out of the Kansas Senate race in favor of independent Greg Orman that groups supporting incumbent Pat Roberts would be able to successfully paint Mr. Orman as a pawn of President Obama and congressional Democrats. This would likely be a death sentence in Kansas, even against an incumbent as unpopular as Mr. Roberts. But instead, a recent panel survey indicated that Mr. Orman is the only candidate in a competitive Senate race who has grown more popular over the last month. He is holding a steady five-point lead in the polls and undecided voters hold both Mr. Roberts and the top of the ticket, Gov. Sam Brownback, in low esteem. As a result, we move our rating to Leans Independent.
MI-SEN: In a great disappointment to Republicans who were optimistic about Terri Lynn Land’s chances at seizing Michigan’s open Senate seat, Democrat Gary Peters has steadily led her for the past several months, with some recent polls having him up by double digits. As John McCain and Mitt Romney both discovered, Michigan is a deceptively difficult state for federal Republicans to compete in, and Ms. Land’s paths to victory are evaporating quickly. We shift this race to Likely Democrat.
ID-GOV, MD-GOV, OK-GOV: Three gubernatorial races that we deemed safe are showing some signs of life. In Idaho, Republican Gov. Butch Otter is facing fracturing in his own party and a deep-pocketed conservative Democrat, A.J. Balukoff. We had previously discussed the issues faced by Gov. Mary Fallin (R-OK), but were convinced by scarce public polling that she was safe from State Rep. Joe Dorman. But six-figure ad buys by the Republican Governors’ Association (RGA) indicates that these races aren’t dormant after all. We move both to Likely Republican. In Maryland, a similar situation is at hand, with over $1.1m in DGA ads bolstering Democratic Lt. Gov. Anthony Brown in his attempt to succeed Gov. Martin O’Malley, which we now rate Likely Democratic. While the limited public polling we have indicates solid leads for all three frontrunners, there’s hardly a dearth of competitive races for the RGA and DGA to spend in, so these races are definitely worth watching.
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